Masterforex-V Trading System

Master Forex - V cursos - el mejor para la educación forex 3 libros forex sobre el análisis técnico - Sensational Hallazgos Este sitio web se basa en tres libros Masterforex-V, que forman la base de la formación Masterforex-V Trading Academy y está diseñado para los comerciantes , Que no puede aprender a ganar dinero de manera constante, después de dominar los fundamentos de la negociación en el mercado de divisas Forex. Cuando prácticamente todos mis estudiantes comenzaron a progresar de principiantes a comerciantes profesionales, recaudando más dinero en un mes que durante muchos años antes, me di cuenta de que podemos pasar de la asistencia a tiempo completo a la formación por correspondencia. Creo que la forma de formación por correspondencia de la negociación en Forex es más apropiado, porque: a) Ningún profesional exitoso comerciante quiere perder su tiempo en lectureship en salas de conferencias durante las horas de trabajo. Para qué. Las ganancias en el mercado, durante esas pocas horas, están en gran exceso sobre el pago a ser pagado por los estudiantes a usted. B) No tiene sentido hacer que la gente viaje miles de kilómetros y desperdiciar decenas de horas de escritura de conferencias, cuando este curso de autores puede ser enviado por correo electrónico c) Preguntas-respuestas sobre el análisis de la negociación actual en Forex: es más eficaz para cualquier Comerciante de tener la oportunidad de cuestionar al autor del método, no dentro del marco de tiempo estrictamente limitado (por ejemplo, un seminario de varios días), pero en forma permanente, en cualquier momento a través de Internet, durante semanas, meses, años. Al mismo tiempo, serán una posibilidad para perfeccionar sus habilidades de trabajo en Forex, mientras que el intercambio de información valiosa o sus observaciones sobre el mercado Forex. Para ello, el comerciante-estudiante tiene la posibilidad de: 1. Obtener la sección teórica a través de Internet (Libro 3 Masterforex-V), con el fin de comprender los fundamentos y detalles de ese sistema de comercio, A esa sección teórica b) Preguntas y respuestas, que fueron previamente planteadas por cientos de otros estudiantes de la Academia sobre los detalles de la implementación del sistema de comercio Masterforex-V. También tendrá la posibilidad de preguntarme a mí oa otros comerciantes de más de 40 países del mundo, que trabajan bajo mi sistema de comercio, sus propias preguntas c) Entrenamiento diario sobre la aplicación del sistema de comercio Masterforex-V en el comercio actual. Diario de elaboración del plan de comercio para la sesión de comercio actual, seguido por el análisis en línea de soluciones tácticas, guiando sugerencias de los comerciantes con experiencia y respuestas a las preguntas actuales, puesto por los principiantes en el comercio actual, el cálculo de corto plazo y medio Orientaciones de los departamentos de la Academia desde el punto de vista de Murray, canales, niveles de Fibonacci, análisis de olas, ubicación de la acumulación de pedidos en la bolsa de valores real , Los índices de las monedas, las monedas de las asociaciones etc. que son requeridos por un comerciante en el curso de negociar en la divisa. Este es el procedimiento de rutina. Durante 1-2 años como mínimo. ¿Cuáles son las diferencias entre el método de entrenamiento de los comerciantes de Masterforex y los otros? No creo que alguien pueda convertirse en profesional después de haber leído sólo libros, no importa cuán habilidosamente se escriben (puede alguien convertirse en médico profesional después de haber leído sólo los manuales y abogado, ingeniero, físico. Esta lista puede ir al infinito. Creo que la profesión del comerciante de divisas es la excepción No es la experiencia de más de 95 comerciantes de todo el mundo, los que perdieron y los que siguen perdiendo su dinero en Forex, lo que demuestra el hecho de que los milagros prácticamente no ocurren en este mundo, y Que un aficionado va a enfrentar un fracaso Y esto es lógico). Mientras leía a numerosos autores de libros sobre la divisa y la bolsa de valores Bill Williams, Alexander Elder, Larry Williams, Thomas Demark, Schwager, Cornelius Luka, Di Napoli y muchos otros, seguí cogiendo las ideas de que: Libros y, por supuesto, el autor no iba a responder ni a mí ni a otros lectores. Y cualquier problema, malinterpretado por un comerciante, se traducirá en pérdida de la cuenta en el curso de un comercio real en Forex. B) Muchas más cuestiones surgen al tratar de aplicar sus sistemas de negociación en un mercado concreto durante el trabajo de rutina en Forex. Por ejemplo, una situación estándar: se abre la negociación bajo el sistema de comercio de un autor famoso, pero la moneda va a otro lugar. Así que, ¿dónde estaba el error ¿Cuál de los siguientes fue: definición errónea por el autor mismo tema pendiente que, como un lector del autor simplemente han malinterpretado él o la aplicación de este sistema de comercio tiene algunas restricciones Esto sucede todos los días, los comerciantes tratan de entender Independientemente a costa de su propio dinero perdido en Forex, tanto el Forex en sí y los métodos de comercio, seguido por ellos y otros comerciantes. ¿Cómo terminan tales experimentos Millones de comerciantes de todo el mundo pueden decir que en su totalidad, colorido y en los detalles. C) Establecimiento de un club de élite y privado de divisas, uniendo a los comerciantes exitosos, que, a través de Internet puede preservar su incógnito, a su propia discreción, y tener la oportunidad de hablar entre sí en cualquier momento. Cada comerciante, desde un principiante hasta un exitoso especulador de divisas, tiene una necesidad permanente de comunicación y compartir sus ideas, puntos de vista en una situación de mercado determinada. Para los principiantes, es un intento subconsciente para aprender de las universidades más experimentadas, y para los comerciantes exitosos para encontrar iguales, la comunicación con quien será útil, interesante, lo que significa rentable para el comercio. D) mercado de la divisa, los métodos de su análisis y trabajar en él no puede ser aceptado como dogma mientras trabajaba en Forex, aceptado una vez y para siempre. Puedo dar docenas de ejemplos de personas concretas que estaban negociando exitosamente en Forex durante muchos años, pero con el tiempo, su margen de beneficio se fue haciendo cada vez menos. ¿Cuál fue la razón por la que Forex se desarrolla muy rápidamente, lo mismo hacer la configuración de fuera de divisas Forex mercado principal computadora, donde prácticamente todos los comerciantes de trabajo. Lo que fue cierto y correcto hace varios años, puede convertirse (en una u otra sección de los elementos del sistema de comercio) equivocado cualquier día. Por ejemplo, hay cosas que no pueden ser cambiadas por aquellos que proporcionan a los comerciantes citas (tendencias, pero sus duraciones y peculiaridades de los movimientos varían o variarán.) Alternativamente, el dólar estadounidense, como la principal divisa, permanecerá, al menos , Por muchos años más, la objetividad del movimiento de grupo de los pares de divisas se asocia con el dólar estadounidense, como criterio de movimiento poderoso en el día u otro. Por supuesto, las tácticas del movimiento de grupo de las monedas contra el dólar americano varía y variará permanentemente) . Yo, por ejemplo, rechazé docenas de métodos (detalles de mi sistema comercial), que utilicé para obtener beneficios hace tres años, y los sustituí por otros diferentes. Significa que es necesario corregir los sistemas de negociación simultáneamente con un cambio de configuración de las cotizaciones suministradas por aquellos que nos las proporcionan. Masterforex-V Trading Academy fue organizado con el propósito de resolver los problemas mencionados anteriormente, donde todo el mundo puede poner sus preguntas teóricas y prácticas sobre el comercio actual en línea sin tener en cuenta las fronteras de los países o zonas horarias, separándolos. Creo que este sitio web será útil para los profesores de cursos de formación de Forex demasiado considerable parte de ella se dedica a la crisis de los métodos existentes de enseñanza y enseñanza de Forex. Como resultado 95-99 de los principiantes pierden su dinero y dejar este mercado para siempre. Los materiales del sitio web pueden ayudar a los maestros a enseñar a sus estudiantes ya aprender algo por sí mismos. De la experiencia de mis asistentes, soy muy consciente de la falta de conocimiento específico de los profesores, entregando los fundamentos de la divisa a los comerciantes-principiantes, y al mismo tiempo, no pueden lograr obtener habilidades prácticas en ese mercado en revisión. También espero que este sitio web sea útil para los empresarios también, para aquellos que quieran abrir nuevas esferas de su negocio con una tasa muy alta de ganancias. Es una esfera de negocio muy arriesgada (para aquellos que no lo estudian bien), pero altamente rentable, supera las tasas de ganancia en docenas y cientos de veces en comparación con las esferas tradicionales de negocios. Desde el punto de vista de su organización y principios similares de composición, este negocio es fundamentalmente diferente, donde prácticamente no hay competencia, costos de producción, fiscales y otras auditorías gubernamentales, problemas de venta y empleados, soñando con salarios más altos con menos esfuerzos. No hay necesidad de invertir el costoso material y la base técnica de un negocio, cuando un empresario se transforma en un esclavo de sus propios activos fijos. Este negocio se puede ejecutar desde cualquier lugar del mundo, conveniente para usted, y no hay nadie, que quiere quitarle este negocio, porque, no es un activo material y técnico, que gana beneficios, sino que su mente y Su capacidad de analizar. Para empezar, es necesario entender Forex, como un sistema. Este sistema no es tan complicado en comparación con cualquier otro negocio, pero asume sus propias múltiples reglas y matices, como cualquier otro negocio. Al principio, quiero destacar que no es mi intención enseñar cómo tomar de 700 a 1000 artículos en un negocio que está en la posición abierta durante varios meses o años en una fila, pero al mismo tiempo, basado en el Masterforex - V sistema de comercio, me indican los métodos de cómo hacer eso. Las posiciones a largo plazo son más apropiadas para los inversores de divisas, trabajando con el hombro de crédito de 1:20 y menos. La mayoría de los comerciantes en Forex son los especuladores de la moneda, que trabajan en las tendencias a corto y mediano plazo (esto es cómo J. Soros se llamó a sí mismo), los que abren transacciones en un hombro de crédito significativamente mayor y va a ganar ganancia dentro de un día O una dos semanas. El sistema de comercio Masterforex-V se ajusta específicamente a los especuladores de la mejor manera, permitiendo ganar correctamente de 20 artículos bajo cada par de divisas en casi todas las sesiones de stock europeo y americano. 20 elementos, por supuesto, no es el límite en las tendencias poderosas durante un día, y la posibilidad de que cada uno de los cuales se le pedirá en el foro privado Masterforex-V Academia. Mis pares de divisas operativas son GBPUSD. EURUSD. Y USDCHF. Considero mi enfoque para trabajar en Forex como conservador. Mi tarea es tomar 20-50 artículos en un par de divisas por una sesión, con lo que un riesgo durante la apertura de las operaciones al mínimo. Si te decepcioné, y piensas que ese ingreso diario no es suficiente para ti, entonces no tiene sentido que leas este sitio web aún más. No voy a convencer a nadie en nada, simplemente aconsejo mis métodos, lógica y enfoques. Para cumplir con la tarea en este sitio web abierto, voy a proporcionar la siguiente información: Voy a considerar una serie de cuestiones teóricas y prácticas de comercio en Forex, que, a mi juicio, incorrectamente descrito en los libros, a fin de explicar lo siguiente : - ¿Quién proporciona las cotizaciones en Forex, cuándo, cómo, por qué y las razones para mover una u otra moneda hacia arriba y hacia abajo - por qué la moneda no está vinculada al análisis fundamental del mercado Forex a la situación económica y política de su gobierno, Es la razón por la cual el vector de movimiento del par de divisas puede coincidir con el vector de noticias emitido y no puede, pero puede mover el lado opuesto en el curso de la emisión de noticias - ¿Por qué 95-99 de los comerciantes pierden después de estudiar los libros disponibles sobre Forex? Los errores de la metodología de las posiciones proporcionadas en esos libros y técnicas de presentación del material de formación - que, qué y cómo enseña a los futuros comerciantes en los cursos de Forex, después de la graduación de que, prácticamente todos los principiantes pierde su primera cuenta comercial en el mercado Forex Secuencia de material B) Deficiencias y contradicciones de esas posiciones y puntos de vista c) Sistema de comercio Masterforex-V, como método para resolver el problema (parcialmente en la sección abierta) De este sitio web, y el resto en el curso de estudiar en la Academia de Comercio Masterforex-V) Para cumplir con el tema A, tendremos que explicar qué opiniones equivocadas y conclusiones que he notado en los libros de prácticamente las autoridades más allá de la excepción: Bill Williams. Alexander Elder, Larry Williams, Thomas Demark, Schwager, Cornelius Luka, Di Napoli y muchos otros. ) Algunos de ellos estaban equivocados justo en el momento de escribir un libro. Por ejemplo, la sección de los promedios móviles del curso de formación de pago, da ejemplo bajo el sistema de comercio por Bill Williams para el 5 º nivel más alto de comerciante. Resolviendo las contradicciones no resueltas de Denmarks en el sistema de comercio Masterforex-V, basado en los TD-puntos y TD-lines, inventado por él Los errores de la táctica comercial de Cornelius Luka en el triángulo en expansión y su corrección en el sistema de comercio Masterforex-V Clasificación de tendencias Por Erick Naiman destacado y confuso derecho en el momento de la publicación. B) Los autores famosos no han presentado algunos de sus métodos en su totalidad, espero que las razones para ello son claras para todos los autores nunca presentan todo lo que saben y pueden hacer. Por ejemplo, la sección de monedas asociadas da ejemplo del movimiento de grupo de los pares de divisas asociadas en el comercio por Bill Williams. Pero esto no se aconseja a la audiencia amplia trampa sin resolver para los especialistas de Larry Williams y su solución en el sistema de comercio Masterforex-V, etc c) algunos métodos están pendientes en este momento (por ejemplo, punto de vista de Demark, Murphy Bill Williams Y otros autores con respecto a la característica del alcance de la negociación en el curso de la definición de la verdadera y falsa penetración de los niveles. Este elemento es correcto para el mercado no controlado, pero es una trampa durante la negociación en el mercado de Forex controlado para muchos comerciantes) La moneda se invierte contra el alcance, la lógica y el sentido común sólo porque no estamos en la divisa incontrolada, pero Forex controlado, donde tanto: los comerciantes y un gerente de este juego se encuentran en diferentes lados del mercado, tratando de sacar provecho de cada uno otro. La comprensión de esto me ayudó a evitar muchos errores en mi trabajo en Forex. D) Algunos métodos, de los conocidos autores mundiales de libros sobre Forex. Así como los métodos de trabajo en ese mercado, son correctos para una cierta PARTE de operaciones de la divisa y trabajan. Pero cuando los autores tratan de presentar sus métodos como los polivalentes, sin distinguir las áreas donde su sistema de comercio funciona y donde no vamos a enfrentar una situación bastante familiar: algunos comerciantes demostrarán la corrección de esos autores y algunos le explicarán cómo perdieron todos sus Dinero al seguir los mismos métodos. Normalmente ambos lados tendrán razón. Al hablar de mi enfoque de los métodos de análisis técnico, tendré que romper muchos estereotipos, debido a que muchos comerciantes pierden su dinero en Forex. Daré mi opinión personal, no estándar del problema para cada uno de los siguientes asuntos. Voy a revelar las deficiencias de los métodos existentes, qué y dónde debe ser cambiado o agregado, de modo que estos famosos métodos comienzan a ayudar a ganar ganancias no la pérdida: - ¿Cuál de los indicadores en Forex es la más justa y precisa - Las divisas asociados, los opositores y Peculiaridades del movimiento de las monedas grupo - Nueva clasificación de las tendencias. Peculiaridades de la negociación sin errores en Forex dentro de la sesión de negociación - Las peculiaridades de la negociación exitosa en Forex bajo la tendencia a medio plazo dentro de la semana - los promedios móviles: ¿por qué algunos de ellos levantan una fortuna Y los otros pierden todo su dinero. Procedimiento de trabajo bajo Masterforex-V. - Operación de comerciantes durante la emisión de noticias, puntos de apertura impecable de tratos, sin consideración a valores y noticias publicadas - Peculiaridades de una actividad de comerciantes en sesión americana - previsión en Forex, o cómo aprender a hacer lo mismo independientemente, en lugar de Pagar a alguien por eso - por qué la mitad de los comerciantes pierden en Forex, al seguir el sistema de comercio por Bill Williams. Mencionado en el comercio de caos y Nuevas dimensiones del comercio de intercambio ¿Qué más se puede agregar al sistema de Bill Williams, una vez optimizado para el comercio contemporáneo en Forex - tendencia Pivot. Son cinco balas, mencionadas por Williams. Suficiente para el pivote de la tendencia ¿Cuál de 11 balas de Masterforex-V. Además de los cinco, en última instancia, puede matar a la tendencia. - Identificación de problemas psicológicos, surgidos con los comerciantes mientras operan las cuentas reales, acompañados con consejos miserables de psicólogos profesionales y psicoterapeutas. El método Masterforex-V para superar un miedo y problemas psicológicos similares de los operadores de Forex. Y muchas otras cosas que pueden ayudarle como comerciante a ganar dinero en Forex. Espero que este libro ayude en cierta medida a cambiar una proporción de aquellos que pierden y ganan su dinero en Forex. Proporción 19: 1. a favor de Gerente del mayor juego financiero en el mundo llamado Forex. A mi juicio, tal proporción permanecerá tal cual es. Es una cuestión de en qué gráfico caerá, como un comerciante. Si desea ser entrenado en el sistema de comercio Masterforex-V - una de las nuevas y más eficaces técnicas de comercio de Forex en el mundo 150 escribir a un correo electrónico: membersmasterforex-v Testimonios sobre el entrenamiento - www. masterforex-v. su/testimonials. Htm Resultados comerciales de los estudiantes Masterforex-V Trading Academy y ganadores de las competiciones de comercio de Forex - masterforex-v. su/konkurs. htm Derechos de autor reservados y registrados en la Cámara de Libros de Ucrania. Se prohíbe la distribución justa o pagada, excepto por el sitio oficial de autores www. masterforex-v. org y masterforex-v. su/. Cualquier uso de las técnicas de negociación de Masterforex-V es permitido solamente por la autoridad del autor. Las referencias a www. masterforex-v. org y masterforex-v. su/ son obligatorias. Antes de decidir participar en el mercado Forex, debe considerar cuidadosamente sus objetivos de inversión, el nivel de experiencia y el apetito por el riesgo. Lo más importante, no invierta dinero que no puede permitirse perder. Existe una considerable exposición al riesgo en cualquier transacción de divisas fuera de la bolsa, incluyendo pero no limitado a apalancamiento, solvencia, protección regulatoria limitada y volatilidad del mercado que pueden afectar sustancialmente el precio o la liquidez de una divisa o par de divisas. Más aún, la naturaleza de apalancamiento de los forex significa que cualquier movimiento del mercado tendrá un efecto igualmente proporcional en sus fondos depositados. Esto puede funcionar en su contra, así como para usted. Existe la posibilidad de que usted podría sostener una pérdida total de los fondos de margen inicial y se requiere para depositar fondos adicionales para mantener su posición. Si no cumple con los requisitos de margen, su posición puede ser liquidada y usted será responsable de las pérdidas resultantes. Para manejar la exposición, emplear estrategias de reducción del riesgo como stop-loss o órdenes de límite. Las restricciones gubernamentales y nuestras políticas nos prohíben abrir cuentas de los siguientes países restringidos de la OFAC: Afganistán, Birmania (Myanmar), Cote dIvoire (Costa de Marfil, Costa de Marfil) ), Cuba, República Democrática del Congo, ex-régimen liberiano de Charles Taylor, Irán, Iraq, Libia, Nigeria, Corea del Norte, Sudán, Siria, Unita (Angola) y Zimbabwe, así como otras personas específicamente sancionadas. Usted Las cosas han cambiado dramáticamente en este aspecto a favor del pequeño comerciante. Hoy en día se puede abrir lo que se llama una cuenta mini forex y el fondo con USD 300 o, a veces menos. Si este es su objetivo, asegúrese de que el corredor que enfoque tiene este tipo de servicio (hoy, la mayoría lo hacen). Lo anterior son elementos esenciales que usted tiene que considerar cuando la caza de un corredor de la divisa. Recuerde, el corredor que el comercio con es tan importante como el sistema de comercio de divisas que está utilizando (a veces incluso más importante). Invertir tiempo y esfuerzo en su investigación y prometo que dará sus frutos. El sistema de comercio Masterforex-V en detalle explica cómo hacer uso de canales inclinados. El trato con canales inclinados es uno de los instrumentos más eficaces en Forex. Aquí el autor presenta sólo los principios básicos de trabajar con canales inclinados. Aprendiendo a entenderlos, el comerciante puede obtener beneficios regularmente en Forex. Para ello, el autor recomienda estudiar los problemas no resueltos por los clasicistas de Forex8221 8211, como D. Murphy, T. DeMark, D. Swagger, E. Neiman, etc. (véanse los capítulos anteriores). A continuación el autor enumera los problemas relativos a la técnica del canal inclinado, inexplicado por 8221classicistas de Forex8221. Además, el autor demuestra cómo se resuelven estos problemas dentro de Masterforex-V Trading System. La primera diferencia entre los enfoques de 8221Forex classicists8221 y Masterforex-V Trading System para la técnica de canal inclinado consiste en aplicar plazos diferentes. En Masterforex-V Trading System, se recomienda trabajar dentro de los plazos para comenzar desde M1 y hasta W1. Este enfoque nos permite establecer ciertas contradicciones. Dejar un comentario Cancelar respuesta Post navigation Formas exitosas para la creación de una aplicación exitosa Construcción en las Filipinas a 2020 iluminado por el nuevo informe de investigación Publicado por: MarketResearchReports. biz Enlaces patrocinados Mensajes recientes Comentarios recientes ArchivosMasterforex-V revisión Visite el sitio Otros sitios web de esta empresa incluyen Masterforex-V. su, Masterforex-V. org, y Profi-Forex. org Masterforex-V es una empresa de educación forex. Master forex-V ofrece materiales de formación forex. La escuela de los comerciantes de Masterforex-V39s incluye fundamentos de la negociación de la divisa, análisis técnico de la divisa, análisis fundamental de la divisa, futuros de la modernidad etc. para su learing personal en mercado de la divisa. Vive la discusión Encuéntrate en directo de Masterforex-V en nuestro foro Perfil de Masterforex-V proporcionado por NicoleFX, 8 de enero 2017 Trading MasterForex-V World Academy es de 10 años en el negocio y 4 años en una fila reconocido oficialmente como el quotBEST FOREX Formación en Europa 2009-2017quot. - Dentro de sus paredes hizo más de 100 descubrimientos en el campo del análisis técnico y de las olas de los mercados financieros. - MasterForex-V World Academy le da la bienvenida a utilizar nuestra Escuela de Traders Gratuita. Profesional de comercio entrenador - Join nuestro libre vivo sala de comercio y disfrutar de la experiencia de comercio con un entrenador de comercio profesional Video Sólo quiero añadir mis 2 centavos. He pasado mucho tiempo leyendo libros de Masterforex-V y ahora mismo puedo dar mi opinión. En primer lugar quiero presentarme. Mi nombre es Anthony Schneider. Sí, lo tienes bien, soy un alemán medio. ) Aún así, no puedo hablar alemán, pero hay algo de sangre alemana que corre por mis venas. Soy comerciante de forex con sólo 2 años de experiencia comercial, pero ya tengo buen sistema de comercio. Por lo que sé, mal sistema (o ningún sistema) significa dolor en el culo para cualquier comerciante, y todos ustedes están ansiosos por tener el método de comercio que se convertirá en el Santo Grial para usted. No quiero decepcionarte, pero no hay Grial, y debes entender esto primero para encontrar algo que te ayude. He encontrado un sistema, que funciona para mí en este sitio. Hay 3 libros en el sitio - el primero y el segundo son gratis. En el primero se puede leer todo lo básico sobre la divisa: diferentes sistemas, libros famosos por los clásicos de la divisa, errores comunes de los novatos. Y así sucesivamente, un montón de cosas útiles. No puedo decir que lo sé todo en este momento, pero algunos conocimientos de base y sistema DEFINIDO - sí. Pasé 1 año y medio en vano, y fue como un relámpago sobre mi cabeza para leer este libro. En el segundo libro he encontrado todos los indicadores técnicos principales y lo que es más importante - la descripción definitiva de cómo usarlo. He construido mi sistema sobre la base de este libro. Ahora intento usarlo y probarlo todos los días en la cuenta demo. Algunos oficios que hago en el real. No quiero forzarte y tu decisión, pero puedo decir que funciona para mí. Por lo menos cada uno puede intentarlo y leer solamente esos capítulos, que él interesó adentro. Ahora estoy estudiando en la academia que negocia de Masterforex-V. Compartiré con ustedes mis pensamientos sobre su sistema educativo más adelante. Pero simplemente puede enviarme una carta por correo electrónico en nthintyandex. ru y preguntarme cualquier pregunta que usted está interesado pulg Voy a tratar de responder a usted tan pronto como sea posible. Buena suerte en su comercio Con Saludos cordiales, Anthony Schneider. Forex Secretos comerciales de un comerciante profesional Este sitio se basa en los libros 8220Forex Secretos comerciales de un comerciante profesional o lo que B. Williams, A. Elder y J. Schwager no contó sobre Forex A los comerciantes8221. Estos libros están destinados a las personas, que se han familiarizado con los principios de comercio de divisas y quieren aprender a hacer dinero sistemáticamente en el mercado de divisas. Domingo, 29 de abril de 2007 El punto de pivote de par de divisas es una de las claves en el comercio en Forex. En primer lugar, introdujamos las siguientes designaciones (nociones), necesarias para el sujeto. El máximo es el máximo en el día anterior El mínimo es el mínimo en el día anterior El cierre es el precio del cierre del día anterior. En términos generales, existen los tres criterios principales. 1. Existe la reserva de existencias (rango de crucero), es decir, la diferencia entre Low y High por la sesión de negociación. Por ejemplo, en el par GBP / USD, esta diferencia puede superar los 100 puntos en un día de negociación. 2. El lector también debe considerar el punto de reversión del movimiento del par de divisas (el punto de pivote) en la sesión de negociación diaria. Por lo tanto, es fácil calcular el beneficio posible que podría ser adquirido por un comerciante con regularidad. 3. Si la tendencia es el amigo (ver Libro 1), es necesario trabajar a lo largo de la dirección de la tendencia. En estas condiciones, la detección de los puntos pivote de la tendencia puede evitar pérdidas que podrían estar condicionadas por los siguientes factores 8226 Un cambio en la dirección de la tendencia. 8226 Además, esta concepción de los puntos de pivote de la tendencia nos permite entender cuándo un acuerdo debe abrirse en una nueva tendencia, es decir, en el comienzo del movimiento del par de divisas, pero no en medio de él. El autor especialmente no recomienda abrir un acuerdo al final de una nueva tendencia. En pocas palabras, la habilidad de detectar el verdadero punto de pivote es necesaria para obtener regularmente ganancias en Forex (por piedad, el conocimiento de que es insuficiente). El sistema dado hace la base de las tácticas de Pivot Points, bien conocidas en todo el mundo (en detalle, véase speculator-fin. ru/pageid64). El punto de pivote se puede calcular de acuerdo con la fórmula: Pivot (HighLowClose) / 3 (las designaciones introducidas se presentan arriba). Después del cálculo de Pivot, se pueden determinar los niveles de resistencia y soporte según las fórmulas dadas a continuación: R12Pivot - Bajo S12Pivot - Alto R2Pivot (R1 - S1) S2Pivot - (R1 - S1) R3High 2 (Pivot - Low) S3Low - 2 (High - Pivot) Aquí R1, R2, R3 son los niveles de resistencia S1, S2, S3 son los niveles de soporte. Por lo tanto, en su esencia, la táctica de Puntos Pivot es binaria (binomial). Es decir, el siguiente paso es la continuación lógica de la anterior. El punto de inversión (pivote) es la piedra angular de este movimiento. La tendencia está pasando. Posteriormente, el punto de inversión (pivote) de la tendencia dada se está desplazando. No sin una razón todos los bancos de primer nivel y las instituciones de fondos hacen uso de cálculos tan simples durante 50 años y más (véase forum. fxclub. org/showthreadt26915). En pocas palabras, esta táctica clásica de Pivot Points es bien conocida en todo el mundo. Sin embargo, la aplicación de él todavía no podría cambiar la proporción de comerciantes acertados a los perdedores (1/20). Ahora el lector debe tratar de ver los inconvenientes del método clásico de detectar Pivot Points. El objetivo es entender las ventajas de la técnica de Puntos Pivot según el sistema Masterforex-V. 1. Cómo se puede seleccionar un marco de tiempo apropiado para calcular el máximo (o mínimo) y el precio de cierre. Uno debe tener en cuenta que el mercado Forex funciona veinticuatro horas al día con regularidad. Es decir, en Europa, los pivotes de América y Asia son diferentes bajo las mismas condiciones. La razón es que las tres variables mencionadas (Alta, Baja, Cierre) son diferentes en varios países. Hagamos hincapié de nuevo. Alto es el máximo del día anterior. Bajo es el mínimo del día anterior. Cierre es el precio del cierre del día anterior. Por ejemplo, uno puede echar un vistazo a un gráfico que representa el par USD / JPY movimiento durante el 22-24 de mayo de 2006. Allí está claramente demostrado que los pivotes del próximo día en Moscú, Tokio, Londres y Nueva York sería cardinalmente diferente . Evidentemente, está condicionada por la diferencia en días naturales. Consecuentemente, todos los tres componentes de los Puntos de Pivote clásicos se representan en la expresión presentada anteriormente (HighLowClose) / 3). Los puntos pivote se calculan aritméticamente. El resultado es más bien una magnitud media aritmética (como promedio móvil) que la determinación de un punto real, después de cruzar el cual la moneda hace lógicamente un chorro (salto) hacia la dirección opuesta. Por ejemplo, la magnitud media aritmética de pivote puede ser igual a 50 del retroceso. Como es evidente, este valor no puede ser útil en un piso. Lo que es más, incluso puede ser perjudicial en el plano si el retroceso podría llegar a 62 y 76. Por ejemplo, un comerciante puede abrir un acuerdo a 50-retroceso contra la tendencia. Al mismo tiempo, la moneda a 62-retroceso hace que el giro en U (inversión) hacia la continuación de la tendencia anterior. Como ejemplo, el lector puede ver el Gráfico 2.4.2. Esta cifra indica claramente que el 6 de junio de 2006 el EUR / USD había caído desde el máximo local en 1.2981 hasta 1.2922. Después de esto, aumentó en 76 - hasta 1.2962. Además, dentro de la tendencia intra-día, el par de divisas ha subido hasta el punto 1.2594. Aproximadamente esto hace alrededor de 400 puntos. Además, el lector debe tener en cuenta los siguientes factores. Durante un día una moneda puede cruzar el Punto de Pivote hacia diferentes direcciones varias veces. Esta es la razón por la clásica Pivot Point no puede ser considerado como un punto real, en el que los acuerdos deben ser abiertos. A modo de ejemplo, examinemos el movimiento de pares EUR / USD el 14 de junio de 2006 (véase gráfico 2.4.3 - gráfico M-15). Para comenzar con el movimiento de pares de divisas el 13 de junio de 2006, el pivote ha hecho (1.2617 1.2529 1.2545) / 3 1.2564). Un pivote debe ser dinámico. El autor declara lo siguiente. Un par de divisas puede pasar por 70-100 puntos en la sesión de negociación europea. En la sesión americana, el pivote debe cambiar su valor - como el verdadero (real) punto de inversión. Por ejemplo, puede ser el comienzo de corrección de inversión del valor anterior de Pivote. En tales condiciones, un comerciante puede cerrar sus ofertas antes del comienzo de la inversión en cuestión. De lo contrario, un comerciante puede mantener un acuerdo que se abre a lo largo de la tendencia más adelante (un acuerdo a largo plazo). This is possible if the price would not cross the Pivot towards the reverse ( opposite ) direction. Let us examine a chart that depicts GBP/USD pair movement during June 29-30, 2006. As one can see, the currency pairs have broken through the Pivot Point during the weekly trend. However, these currency pairs have not once crossed the pivot point towards the opposite direction during the session trend - notwithstanding the fact that these currency pairs have passed through several hundreds of points during a day and a half. In different time frames the pivot must indicate different points. One must distinguish the reversal in the intra-day trend from the reversal in the intra-week trend. Then, again, the trend of duration of several weeks presents the principally different pattern - and so on. However, according to the classical approach to Pivot-Points problem, just one value is considered - i. e. that of the previous day. Hence, there logically arises the following question. The reversal of which trend does the pivot make Again, the reader must keep in mind that this pivot is calculated according to the above-given formula (HighLowClose)/3 on the previous day. R. Axel (from Dow Jones Agency) has developed his own technique of the pivot calculation when the levels of the previous day dont fit into this formula (HighLowClose)/3. This discrepancy also confirms that the classical method of determining Pivot Points is imperfect. One can make the following conclusions. The above-given examples clearly illustrate the principal difference between approaches to the notion of Pivot Point as a real point of reversal of currency pairs at Forex. That is, there is the Forex classicists approach and, in contrast to it, Masterforex-Vs viewpoint. According to the latter system, the following procedures must be done. 1. One must calculate the correction and reversal in various TF - to start from the intra-day session (M15) and up to several weeks (D1). This clearly depicts the difference between the correction and reversal. For instance, the following situations can take place. 8226 The reversal can occur during the session trend when the currency pair movement does not exceed Pivot in a weekly trend, which is equal to the weekly session correction but not to the reversal. 8226 The reversal can occur during the session trend when the currency pair movement does exceed Pivot in weekly trend. It is the first sign of the reversal that can occur within the weekly trend. 2. Such correlation between the two types of trends permits us to do the following. 8226 To gain profit during the session trend. 8226 To understand the duality ( binarity ) in the direction of the currency pair movement (the continuation or cancellation ( abolition ) within a session trend or longer types of them. 3. The 50-recoil indicates rather not the trend reversal but quantitative changes in it. Here is implied either the further development of the currency pair movement or the given pair transition to the flat. According to Masterforex-V, one must correlate these tendencies with other factors - such as the time of movement, correlation between the ally currency pairs and technical levels in various TF, etc. Now let us regard this problem as it is presented in Masterforex-V Trading Academy. Again, one must take a look at the chart where EUR/USD pair movement during June 5-6, 2006 is depicted. The reader must try to detect Pivot Points by himself. 8226 Pivot Points in the intra-day trend 8226 Pivot Points in the weekly trend session. This information is expedient. Due to it, one can understand the following facts (and make use of them). 1. one can detect the point at which the bear intra-day trend starts 2. one can detect the point where the beginning of the bear weekly trend can be confirmed for sure. 3. On can see at what points the trend heavy ( strong ) corrections - or the trend recoil - could occur. 4. One can understand the conditions for the reversal of the trend and its changing from the bear type to the bull one. However, this has not happened in the case in question. 5. In addition, a trader must take into account the reversal point abolition ( failure ). Regarding this aspect, one could state in a deal for a long period. Masterforex-V Trading Academy in English - www. masterforex-v. su For the work at Forex, every day each trader must detect technical levels of the resistance and support. As it is already mentioned in the previous chapters, detection of technical levels of the resistance and support is rather complicated. A trader (and the beginner especially) must clearly differ the levels of various currency pairs. Issuing from these criteria, one can project a commercial plan for the trading session and develop the daily working tactics. I suppose that the most optimal technical levels are submitted by Axel Rudolph from Dow Jones Newswires agency. There is an example of the technical levels on July 7, 2006. According to the technical analysis given to European currency markets by Axel Rudolph from Dow Jones Newswires agency, USD will come down ( drop ) - see the moving charts made on July 7, 2006 for 24 hours. EUR/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/ SWISSI. The 3 rd resistance 1.2914 0.6997 148.12 1.5766 The 2 nd resistance 1.2842 0.6988 147.80 1.5742 The 1 st resistance 1.2789 0.6968 147.50 1.5713 The point of reversal (pivot) 1.2775 0.6957 147.15 1.5699 The 1 st support1.2758 0.6942 146.96 1.5689 The 2 nd support 1.2730 0.6920 146.55 1.5669 The 3 rd support 1.2685 0.6913 146.20 1.5650 Let us examine EUR/USD pair movement during the day. The pair aims at the minor ( accessory ) resistance at the level 1.2789 (it is Fibonacci correction level by 61.8). If this level will be broken through, the pair will reach the point 1.2842. For this pair, the 1 st level of support is located at the level 1.2758 (the minimum on Sunday). If, on the contrary to expectations, this level will be broken through, the pair can test for strength the minor ( accessory, second-order) support at the level 1.2730. In the weekly Chart. EUR/USD pair movement is depicted. It is an ascending trend. EUR/GBP pair movement is presented in the daily Chart. One can expect the pair to reach ( arrive at ) the secondary resistance at the level 0.6968. If this level will be broken through, the pair will aim at the resistance at the point 0.6988. The 1 st level of support is located at 0.6942. If this level of support will not resists ( stand up ), the currency pair will aim at the level support at 0.6920. In the weekly chart. . one can see EUR/GBP pair movement. It is an ascending trend. EUR/JPY pair movement is depicted in the daily chart. This pair aims at the minor ( accessory ) resistance at 147.50 - until the 1 st support at 146.96 is not broken through (the daily minimum on Tuesday). Exceeding the value of 147.50, the pair will aim at the minor ( accessory ) resistance at 147.80. Below 146.96, the levels of support are 146.55 and 146.20. EUR/JPY pair movement is depicted in the weekly chart. It is an ascending trend. Further, EUR/SWISSI pair movement is depicted in the daily chart. The pair again puts on trial the minor ( accessory ) resistance at the level 1.5713 (it is the maximum in the given medium). If this level will be broken through, this pair will test for durability the resistance at the level 1.5742. The 1 st support is located at the level 1.5689. The next one is placed at 1.5669 (the minimal value on the Thursday morning). There is EUR/SWISSI pair movement depicted in the weekly chart. It is the ascending trend. And now we regard with the following currency pairs: GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/SWISSI Aussie dollar/USD. The 3 rd resistance1.8496 116.67 1.2446 0.7510 The 2 nd resistance 1.8475 116.01 1.2396 0.7503 The 1 st resistance. 1.8415 115.84 1.2364 0.7481 The point of reversal 1.8370 115.20 1.2292 0.7464 The 1 st support 1.8320 115.02 1.2262 0.7449 The 2 nd support 1.8270 114.34 1.2197 0.7439 The 3 rd support. 1.8200 114.00 1.2135 0.7405 Let us examine GBP/USD pair movement during that day. The pair aims at the minor ( accessory ) resistance at the level 1.8415. If this level will be broken through, the pair will aim at the point 1.8475. For this currency pair, the minor ( accessory ) support is located at the level 1.8320 (the maximum on June 23). The next level of support makes 1.8270 (the maximum on June 27). There is GBP/USD pair movement depicted in the weekly chart. Is it the recoil from the level of support Let us examine USD/JPY pair movement during a day. The currency pair is descending again, aiming at the minor ( accessory ) support at 115.02. If this level will be broken through, the currency pair will aim at the level of support at 114.34. The first resistance is located at 115.84 (the maximum in the medium). We now dwell on USD/JPY pair weekly movement. The increase is hampered by the resistance level. Let us examine the daily chart of USD/SWISSI movement. One can expect the pair to descend down to the minor ( accessory ) support at 1.2262, till the growth will be restricted by the resistance at 1.2364. If this level of resistance will be broken through, an increase in this currency pair on Friday can restrict the minor ( accessory ) resistance at 1.2396. The support is located at 1.2197, which is lower than the level 1.2262 (the minimum in the medium). Again, one can study USD/SWISSI pair movement, depicted in the weekly chart. The increase is hampered by the level of resistance. There is Aussie dollar /USD pair movement depicted in the daily chart. This pair aims at the minor ( accessory ) resistance at 0.7481. If this level will be broken through, this pair will aim at the marks 0.7503 and 0.7510. These points are the maximums on June 9 and June 12, respectively. The 1 st minor ( accessory ) support is located at the level 0.7449 (the minimum on the Friday morning). This level of support must hold out ( survive ) if the currency pair tests this level for strength ( durability ). If this level will be broken through, the minor ( accessory ) support at 0.7339 will hamper the decay of this currency pair. There is Aussie dollar /USD pair movement depicted in the weekly chart. One can see the recoil from the level of support. The point of recoil ( U-turn, pivot ) is equal to the sum of the maximal and minimal prices of the bargain closing at the previous day, divided by three. Students of Masterforex Trading Academy have developed an indicator - Pivot RS session. It is intended for saving time that could be spent on daily marking points of recoil ( U-turn, pivot ) and 3 levels of the resistance and support (see the levels of the resistance and support by Axel RS - forum. masterforex-v. org/indexshowforum24 . We now dwell on the advantages of the technical analysis given by Axel Rudolph to Forex market. 1.For a trader, it is so easily to see the reversal (pivot) point and 3 levels of resistance/ support as regards the 8 basic currency pairs at Forex. Surely, such approach economizes the time. 2.One should pay attention to Axels analytical review title. The further currency movement at that very day must be taken into account as well. Rudolph Alex has clearly exposed the currency pair movement direction at the beginning of trading at Forex. 3.In the charts that concern June 7, 2006, one can watch how the ally currency pairs, located place beyond the pivot, have managed to break through the levels of resistance/ support 1, 2, 3. It is conditioned by decrease in USD rate. 4.Let us dwell on the possibility of gaining profit at Forex. As one can judge by the above-given examples, a trader can gain profit with the currency pair movement to start from the 1 st and up to the 3 rd level of support/resistance. The comments . The reader should pay attention to dispute between Masterforex-V Trading Academy students and a leader of Forex Brokers Forex Club. This Forex Brokers, every day issuing Dow Jones Newswires, somehow manages to keep on forgetting to submit the analytical reviews that contain Rudolph Alexs levels to its traders. Only students of Masterforex-V Trading Academy have made one of the largest Forex Brokers of Forex club in Russia to include Rudolph Axels analytical investigations into Dow Jones Newswires for the traders. We now dwell on drawbacks of technical levels at Forex, submitted by Dow Joness agency. 1. Any system cannot be reliable if one does not understand the essence of it. So, what one can do when Axels levels would be not issued tomorrow. Otherwise, R. Axel can be mistaken. 2. How one can on ones own detect R. Axels levels in several hours before the news publication. 3. How one can manage to know the levels of resistance/support in half of an hour earlier than R. Axel would publish it By the way, students of Masterforex-V Trading Academy somehow do get this information earlier than it appears in Dow Jones Newswires ( news line ), issued by leading Forex Brokers in Russia 4. You can calculate the currency pair pivot (the point of reversal) according to the following technique: the point of reversal is equal to the sum of the maximum, minimum and the price of closing at the previous day, divided by three. However, this point will never coincide with the value, which R. Axel would submit you the next morning. Is not it true How to calculate the pivot so that to make both these values to coincide 5. Which other techniques can be used in order to check the correctness of R. Axels levels. For instance, on July 7, 2006 the fourth level of resistance for the EUR/GBP pair was calculated before the issue of news. It made the local peak in American session. (GBP was at 1.8540 EUR was at 1.2860). There is another example. On July 10, 2006 R. Axel has pointed out to the 3 rd level of support of GBP as 1.8415. At the same time, the majority of participants of Masterforex-V Trading Academy closed their bargains at 1.8365 - it was the local minimum on that very day (July 10, 2006). How one can detect a local minimum of the trading day with the accuracy up to 1 point in the first half of the trading session when GBP has moved through 160 points Aiming at gaining profits regularly, students of Masterforex-V Trading Academy study such specificities. Surely, the detection of pivot point and the 3-4 levels of resistance/support is necessary for gaining profits regularly. However, the knowledge just of this method is not enough. Masterforex-V Trading Academy in English - www. masterforex-v. su Recoil from the technical level. In its essence, this part is dedicated to the following. 1. To scrutinize the classicists of Forex approach to the problem of determining the difference between true and false technical level breakouts. 2. To expose drawbacks, inherent in each of the classical systems, which cause traders losses at Forex. 3. By giving analysis to these problems, to elaborate methods of their solution. One can describe the todays state of the technical level analysis at Forex as the following. 1. A unified method of detecting technical levels at Forex is not elaborated yet (see the Part Levels of support and resistance in Masterforex-V TS. 2. A technique that could permit us to estimate whether the breakout is true or false still is not developed as well. One can mark out the two types of the currency pair movement at Forex : a). There can happen the true (real) breakout through the technical level, after which a currency pair is moving towards the next level. b). On the other hand, a recoil from the technical level, a false breakout included, is possible. For the traders work, the following aspects are important. 1. There exists a flat - i. e. a lateral trend between the first levels of the resistance and support. When a currency gets into this price corridor, its further movement direction is uncertain. 2. By definition, the trend is the directed movement of currency pairs as the result of the true ( real ) breakout of the flat technical level. a). If the currency pair movement is directed upwards, it is the breakout through the 1 st level of resistance ( the breakout upwards ). b). If the currency pair movement is directed downwards, it is the breakout through the level of support (the breakout downwards ). It is clearly depicted in the charts given below. Chart 2.1. The false breakoutthrough the level of resistance and return to the flat zone. Chart 2.2. The true breakout of the level of support and the beginning of the bear trend . There are the rules that a trader must observe. 1. Under the conditions of the flat . a) Either to be out of the market (especially if the trend range is narrower than the average statistical stock reserve ( cruising range ) for a given currency pair per the trading session). b). Otherwise, one can work with the recoil - i. e. to make deals on buy from level of support and on sell from level of resistance under the condition of the flat broad ranges, approximately equal to the average statistical stock reserve ( cruising range ) for a given currency pair per the trading session. 2. Within the trend, I would recommend to work only towards its direction (a trend is my friend). 3. The true breakout through the technical level indicates the beginning of a trend. A). That is, if it is the breakout through the level of resistance, the bull trend is beginning. B). Otherwise, if it is the breakout through the level of support, the bear trend is developing. 4. The trend development ( course ) is the directed movement from one level of resistance/support to another. It is depicted in Chart 2.2 . After breaking through the 1 st level of support, the currency is rushing from one level to another - till the recoil. It means the non-breaking through any of the next levels or the false breakout through one of them. In Chart .2.2 . the false breakout through the 3 rd level of support (the flat) is depicted as well. It indicates that the given trend movement is temporally arrested or it has come to the end. 5. The trend wave attenuation ( the end of it ) is the trend directed movement turning into the lateral movement (flat). The flat is characterized by non-breaking through a level of resistance/support or the false breakout (the recoil). In Chart.2.2 . one can see the false breakout through the level of support 3. 6. The market is under the conditions of the non-stop movement. Therefore, in a trading session, the trend end in the form of a flat makes the starting point of the trend further development. It is depicted in Chart 2.2 - between the levels of support 2 and 3. As it is shown in Chart 2.3 . the support 2 turns into the resistance 1.A local minimum turns into the support 1. Hence, the next trading session can be still carried out under the conditions of a flat, the levels of support/resistance being strictly determined. Otherwise, the ex-support 2, after breaking through the resistance 1, can open the bull trend. Respectively, if the support will be broken through, the bear trend will start. Chart 2.3. The levels of resistance and support . Thus, all rules that can guarantee the profitable practice at Forex can be briefly formulated as the following. 8226 One must understand (feel) the difference between the levels of support and resistance (see the previous part). 8226 One must know the rules of the true breakout through the levels and recoil from them, the false breakout included. 8226 One must watch the correlation between the flat and the trend in various timeframes (TF). Comments. As one can see, the above-given rules that concern the flat-trend correlation are rather simple. Hence, there arises the following question. Why do more than 95 of traders, who know these rules, lose at Forex The answer is evident. That is, one must perfectly distinct the true breakout through the technical level from a false one. 8226 When the technical level breakout is true, one must open a deal in the direction of the trend commenced. 8226 When the technical level breakout is false, one must open a deal towards the opposite direction. It is so simple ( evident ), isnt it It is just necessary to clearly distinct ( tell ) the true breakout signs from the false ones. We now examine how the difference between the true and false breakouts through the technical levels is explained by the classicists of Forex . Generally speaking, the classicists state the following. The true breakout, in contrast to the false one, occurs when the trading volume is increasing. In the case of the false breakout, the trading volume does not increase. In Exchange trade basis, Alexander Elder states the following. While opening a deal on buy, the best situation is when the breakout upwards in the day chart would be confirmed by the technical indices that could indicate the formation of a new upwards-trend beginning in the weekly chart. Larger trading volumes are inherent in the true breakouts. On the opposite, as a rule, false breakouts are characterized by small trading volumes. In addition, when the breakout is true, the technical indices reach new maximum/minimum values towards the direction of the trend development. The false breakout is often characterized by the divergence between prices and indices. A certain price corridor is more inherent in the market than a trend. The majority of breakouts through the price corridor bounds are false. Such breakouts can involve into the game a gambler who follows the trend - earlier than the prices return to the standard. The false breakout is the amateurs plague. At the same time, professionals adore such false breakouts. Neimans viewpoint is the following. In their majority, false signals can be checked ( detected ) with the help of the volume indices. In the first ( primal ) currency movement towards the level of support/resistance, the trading volumes are increasing. At the last stage in currency movement towards the level of support/resistance, such volumes are diminishing. That is, at the beginning of this reversal figure development, the volume is increasing due to the trend previous price movement. When the figure development is coming to the end, the volume is increasing due to the price movement in the direction, opposite to the previous trend. It is the sign that nobody is interested in prolonging the old trend. In a chart, it can be depicted as follows: L. Borcelino in his Manual of de-trading (see forum. masterforex-v. org/viewforumf9 ) presents another characteristic of the double peak/minimum. The second peak/minimum is formed with a trading volume smaller than the first one. In fact, the second peak/minimum cannot be as high/deep as the first one. Nevertheless, it is the repeated attempt at moving towards the same direction. And what is more, such double peaks/minimums can develop their 3 rd. 4 th. etc. waves ( versions ). Such double/triple peaks/minimums can be formed within a short period - as well as during a much longer time interval - from several minutes and up to ten years. In contrast to the false breakout, the true one is characterized by the trading day closing above the technical level breakout. This position must be hold up not less than during 2 days. J. Murphy in his Technical analysis of future markets also investigated the problem of criteria of the true breakout through the trend line. It is not a simple problem. In detecting such criteria, subjectivity of a kind is unavoidable. As a rule, the trend line breakout via the price of closing of bargain ( deal ) is more important than just a breakout within a day. There are price filters. They condition ( prescribe ) that the trend line must be broken through by a certain value. In addition, there exist time filters. Among them, the most commonly used is the so-called the rule of two days. In contrast to the false breakout, the true one is characterized by the trading day closing behind ( above ) the technical level broken through. This position must be hold up not less than during 5 days. In his Technical analysis. The full course, D. Swagger studied the problem of signs of a true/false breakout. According to him, the following situation is rather common ( ordinary ). Prices just slightly deviate from the original trading range and only for several days. Later on they return back. One of the reasons of such pattern is the following. The market participants want to safeguard ( insure ) themselves against the heavy movement in prices after the trading range breakout. Therefore, they issue protective stop-orders in the vicinity to the trading range. The result can be the following. Sometimes even an inessential movement in prices towards the outwards of the trading range can stimulate ( provoke ) realization of a considerable number of the protective stop-orders. As soon as this primary flow of orders is saturated, the breakout comes to an end - if it is not strengthened by fundamental reasons and support purchases. Otherwise, the breakout can sustain if there are large deals on sell in the case of the breakout through the lowest bound ( bottom ). Such sells can fortify ( strengthen ) this tendency. One must take into account such specificities in the price behavior. As an indicator of the tendency beginning, the trading range breakout probability is much higher if the prices still remain beyond the range after several days - e. g. after 5 days. When waiting for the confirmation of the breakout, one can partially miss the profit per several days at the beginning of the tendency. All the same, this tactics helps eliminating many false signals. In contrast to the false breakout, the true one is characterized by overcoming of the 3- movement behind ( above ) the technical level broken through. According to J. Murphy, sometimes even the breakout with the price of closing is not enough to be sure that the true breakout through the trend line has happened. To exclude false signals, the majority of analysts use various time - and price filters. The 3-breakout makes an example of a price filter. Mainly this criterion is used for estimating a long-term trend line breakout. The price of closing must leave the trend line not less than by 3. However, this rule is unacceptable to some financial futures - e. g. to deals with interest rates. D. Swagger mentions that other signs of the confirmation can be used - such as the minimum percentage change in the price. T. Chand has studied the channel breakout (see On the other side of the technical analysis - 1997). His rule of entering is the following. If the todays closing is higher than the maximum price in the last 20 days, one must buy at the closing. In the case of the downward position, one must sell at the closing. Going out of a long deal must be realized at a new 5-days minimum or with the stop-loss. Going out of a short deal must be realized at a new 5-days maximum or with the stop-loss. The stop-loss makes 1500. This is a typical trend-following system. In Encyclopedia of trading strategies, D. Cats and D. McCormick examined breakouts on the basis of prices of closing. The test 1 is based on the channel breakout. In this system only the prices of closing are used. Here one does not take into account the entrance with the market price into the stock exchange tomorrows opening and the deal costs (the commission ( brokerage ) and slip). In this system, the rules are the following. If a current position is short or neutral and market price is higher than the price of closing in the last n days, one must buy at the tomorrows opening. On the contrary, if a current position is long or neutral and market price is lower than the minimum price of closing in the last n days, one must sell at the tomorrows opening (open a short position). The only parameter is inherent in this system. It is n (the number of days under analysis). Chart 2.5. The breakout of upper bounds of narrow trading ranges (GBP September, 1990). Under the condition of a heavy trend movement, a deal may be opened even after 5() days. This case is hardly can be contested. However, what must be done in the other situation, examined by Swagger as an example of the analysis of another type. Chart 2.6. The breakout of the previous minimum as a signal of sell. Soybean oil. Continuous futures. Chart 2.7. Support at the level of the previous relative maximum and resistance at the level of the previous relative minimum (DM, continuous futures). How to correlate such recommendations given by Swagger with the principle of work on the breakout of the resistance/support level only on the 6 th () day We now dwell on the difference between breakouts through the resistance/support levels under the conditions of 8226 the strong signal (), 8226 the signal of intermediate strength (), 8226 the weak signal (). It is the classification according to E. Neiman in his The traders small encyclopedia (see forum. masterforex. org/viewforumf9 ). I conventionally divide such signals into the three groups. It makes it easier to understand Neimans approach towards determining the signal strength - and, respectively, to find out the strong and weak points of this theory. A). Within the trend, the signal is strong (). B). In the period of a flat, the signal is moderate (). C). In the direction opposite to that of the trend, the signal is weak (). These types of the signal are depicted in Chart 2.8. Chart 2.8. The signal types . The recoil from the level occurs, and the false breakout does happen more often than the true one. It is the work with recoils from each of the technical levels. Again, let us return to On the other side of the technical analysis by T. Chand. He has examined the recoil ( rolling-backsystem ). According to the old rule, the deal must be made on buy when the recoil is directed towards the support. Many traders like such situations. Really, the risk is minimal, whereas the potential profit could be rather high. On the contrary, one can buy in case of a strong trend and sell when the trend is weak . The key point consists in distinguishing the recoil from support. The recoil is a slight correction of the trend. The recoil kinds can vary. For instance, one can determine the recoil as the currency movement in the last 3 days. Otherwise, it can be regarded as the approach to a moving average (MA). The latter can be considered as that of 20 or 50 days duration. It can be a simple or exponential one. All the same, the price can touch the average or cross it. The entrance into the 1-band in the vicinity to this MA is also possible. After scrutinizing the conditions, one can decide where the buy could be profitable. For instance, it can be done at the tomorrows opening, at the yesterdays maximum, or at the maximum chosen within 5 days. A lot of variations of this system can be developed in this way. First, we will regard the recoil as a new minimum within 5 days under the condition of the upward-directed trend and new maximum within 5 days under the condition of the downward-directed trend. Further, we must determine the notion of a trend. The minimum must remain above the 50-day simple MA, whereas the maximum must be below this MA. Other versions are possible. A trend coming into the existence must be confirmed by ADX-14 exceeding 30. Otherwise, as an index of recoil, one can use RSI-14 or stochasticity. Getting into the critical zone, the reversal and leaving this critical zone make the signal. In Stock exchange secrets, L. Connors and L. Rushky state the following. In trading on the deviations ( oscillations ), the most appropriate model is the trading on the trial of the previous peaks (maximums or minimums). Such tests enable us to indicate the double breakpoint ( rest-point, salient point ). Thus, one can find a perfect position for opening a deal. Under such conditions, the risk of losses is minimal. The detection ( test, probe ) of a minimum, where the long-term position must be opened, can take place slightly higher or lower. All the same, the support cannot be established before the realization of the detection ( test, probe ). The majority of our models has become formed exactly after the successful detection ( test, probe ) - i. e. after the previous maximum/minimum approbation by the market and returning to this value again. Chart 2.9. An example of the double breakpoint ( rest-point, salient point ). T. DeMarque has examined the difference between the true and false breakouts through the technical levels. He has emphasized the importance of estimating whether the intra-day price breakouts are true. TD-points must be chosen correctly. TD-line must be plotted from the right to the left. The price guideposts must be calculated. After this, the three way-outs must be considered: 1. There can appear the signs of the tendency reversal. 2. A substantial shift in the correlation between the demand and proposal is possible. 3. The price guidepost realization is important as well. Besides, there is another factor, to which the attention should be paid. One must consider whether the intra-day price breakout is true. This is especially important. I regard my investigations in this area as a substantial contribution into improving of the technique of choice of a moment of entering the market - and leaving it. What is more, the given principles are applicable in other methods of the technical analysis as well. The following situation is rather typical. Traders take a position at points of the trend line breakout to-be. Than they with horror watch that prices stop and start to move in the opposite direction. This results in substantial losses. However, those very traders keep on doing the same mistake, not thinking about the origins of it. False breakouts are always rather frequent. It is traders stumbling block, because of which some of traders totally refuse to use the trend line. A techniques of developing TD-lines has somewhat improved this situation. Nevertheless, false breakouts do happen. As far as I know, a technique of estimating whether the breakout is false or true is not developed yet. We now dwell on the breakout qualifiers. TD-qualifier of the breakout 1. The signal of buy is true if the price of closing has decreased the day before the signal arrival. The signal of sell is true if the price of closing has increased the day before the signal arrival TD-qualifier of the breakout 2. The signal of buy is true if the price of opening is higher than the price of breakout. The signal of sell is true if the price of opening is lower than the price of breakout. TD-qualifier of the breakout 3. The signal of buy is true if the price of closing on the eve of the breakout, summed up with the difference between the price of closing and the minimum price in the same day (or the price of closing the two days before the breakout if it is lower) is lower than the price of breakout. The signal of sell is true if the difference between the price of closing on the eve of breakout and the difference between the maximal prices of closing in the same day (or the price of closing the two days before the breakout if it is higher) exceeds the price of breakout. I have discovered three TD Breakout Qualifiers. There are two price models, formed the day before the probable breakout. In addition, there is one model, which is formed in the day of breakout. In particular, I have drawn the following conclusion. If a market is in the state of oversell (overbuy) the day before the breakout, there increases the possibility that the amount ( pressure ) of buyers (sellers) all the same will not become diminished after the breakout. This makes just illusion of the market strength (weakness). Giving analysis to the price behavior on the eve of breakout, I have discovered the following. If the price of closing on the eve of breakout upwards is lower than in the previous day, the probability of the true intra-day breakout increases. In this case, it can be recommended to open a position in the intra-day intersection (crossing) of the trend line. I determine this as TD Breakout Qualifier 1 (see Chart 1.37 ). In a way, TD Breakout Qualifier 3 is similar to TD Breakout Qualifier 1. Really, it also takes into account the price movement on the eve of the trend line breakout. However, in the case of TD Breakout Qualifier 3 one determines the difference between the maximum price and the price of closing on the eve of the trend line breakout downwards. Further this difference is subtracted from that very price of closing. It is the method of calculating the supply value. The demand value is calculated in the following way. The difference between the price of closing and the minimum price on the eve of the trend line breakout upwards is added tothat very price of closing (see Charts 2.10, 2.11 ( 143 and 144 )). The true breakout can be detected in the following way. One must find the difference between the price of closing on the eve the breakout upwards and the minimum price in that very day (or the price of closing in the previous day - if it is lower). Further it is necessary to add this difference to the price of closing in the day before the breakout. If the value obtained is lower than the price at the point of breakout, the breakout is considered true. If the value obtained is larger than the price at the point of breakout - most probably, the breakout is false In the given example (see Chart ), the difference between the price of closing and the minimum price on the eve of the breakout of TD-line of supply (A-B) is added to the price of closing in that very day. The value obtained is smaller than the price at the point of breakout. Consequently, the trend line breakout is true. In this chart TD-line of demand (A-B) is also drawn ( plotted ). In Chart (145 ), for determining whether the trend line breakout downwards is true, the use is made of the procedure, the sense of which is reversed with respect to the above-described one. First, one has to determine the difference between the price of closing and the price minimal on the eve of the supply line breakout upwards (A-B). Further, the price of closing in the same very day must be added to this difference. As one can see, the resulting value is smaller than the price at the breakout point. This confirms that the breakout is true. The principal drawbacks of the classical theory of distinguishing the true and false breakouts of technical levels at Forex from the viewpoint of Masterforex-V TS . Such drawbacks are the following. 1. The classical theory of the true and false breakouts of technical levels was developed not issuing from conditions of Forex money-market (where the trading volume was not taken into account). Some other markets were considered. 2. Even T. DeMarque has recognized that this approach is incorrect in total. This classicist has admitted the following. As far as he is concerned, he still doesnt know any technique that could permit traders to see whether the price breakout is true or false. One can judge by oneself. Really, it is evident that the deal opening directly after the previous day technical level breakout must be specified much more exactly. E. Neiman doesnt write about this aspect directly. However, his approach to the order opening is based on the conviction that a given breakout must happen along the trend development direction. This approach must be scrutinized much more closely. The reason is that the one of the keystone figures of reversal (such as either the head and shoulders, or the head and shoulders reversed) is purely the result of ( exactly indicates ) a local peak breakout of the previous day. Some traders try to play safe. Avoiding not getting into the head and shoulders figure, they open deals after 5 () days to start from the technical level breakout. In this connection, there arise the following questions. Surely, one could give analysis to broad markets post factum. In this case, one can choose heavy trends of the duration within 30-70 days or longer (as Swagger did it). Thus, one can recommend traders to open their deals in the 6 th day to start from the technical level breakout. However, whats about the real trading Under such conditions, a trader does not know the trend actual duration. For instance, see Chart . GBP/USD pair movement on June 30, 2006 can serve as an example. The support at 1.8000 has been broken through. After waiting for 5 days, one could open a deal in the vicinity to 1.7560 at the 6 th day - i. e. after the currency has already advanced more than the half-way in its movement (by 440 points). Now one could expect a local minimum at 1.7310 - to be more precise, at 1.7435. Exactly at this point, after the breakout thorough the previous day maximum, the currency has reversed. Thus, making use of the technique by Swagger one can gain just 125 points under the conditions of a strong trend (690 points). However, one must keep in mind that the reversal could happen earlier. That is, one losed 500 point in order to dogmatically stick to the rule not to open a deal during the first 5 days after the level breakout. As the result, a deal will be opened at the end of the currency movement or before the recoil. When a dogma does not correspond to the practice any more, it would be better to decline ( reject ) it, would not it We now dwell on the recoil system according to T. Chand in his book On the other side of the technical analysis). Notwithstanding all the positive aspects of this system, a very serious drawback is inherent in it. That is, within the framework of this system one cannot detect a point at which the recoil turns into the reversal. The theory of the level breakout . developed by D. Cats and D. McCormick in Encyclopedia of trading strategies, must be revised ( specified ) from the viewpoint of ( with respect to ) the price of closing in the previous day. That is, one can give hundreds of examples when the work according to the given technique is profitable at Forex. At the same time, there are also hundreds of disadvantageous situations - e. g. the breakout through a local peak in the previous day can result either in the reversal or in a very heavy recoil towards the direction, opposite to the level breakout. In the framework of the classical analysis given to Forex, the notions of technical levels of resistance/support of tilted ( slant ) and horizontal channels are not clearly defined - they are just piled up. Hence, how can one tell the difference between these characteristics from those the features in common Elder was the first who attracted attention to the following problem. How to elaborate ones position in all the mess of true and false breakouts, trends and flats in different time frames The currency pair movement may be divided as following. b) trend recoils After this, all possible combinations of these three characteristics must be put on trial in various time-frames at least at 3 screens - as A. Elder has recommended. It is necessary to calculate the number of combinations. For instance, there is the combination 1. That is, the trend is in the minimal timeframe, whereas the flat is in the large-scale timeframe. At what points it must be determined whereas level breakouts are false or true Is it enough to use three screens ( displays ) according to Elder Maybe more screens would be preferable. As far as Im concerned, I work with 4 screens. What are the drawbacks and advantages of the given technique How different timeframes are correlated with one another under the following condition. That is, at ones point-of-sale terminal, there are 4 screens. However, one must take into account the quantity of timeframes much larger. What is the correlation between the technical levels of resistance and those of support, all of them being exposed at 4 screens In what way do the fundamental and technical analyses supplement each other How can a trader make use of the fundamental analysis from the viewpoint of its applying in the branch of the technical analysis, the problems of which are enumerated above Masterforex-V Trading Academy in English - www. masterforex-v. su Support and resistance are the known cornerstones in forex technicals, wherein: 1. a current forex rate (CFR) is surrounded by levels of: a). resistance being superior to CFR b). support being inferior to CFR. 2. a level breakthrough triggers a leap to a consecutive support/resistance 3. a false breakthrough is responsible for a rate backstroke (say, from resistance to support). Thus, having data on resistance and support levels and being armed with R/S true/false criteria, a trader grows faultless-entry skilled to ensure smooth level-to-level trading. To be found below is a graphic drawing of a flat followed by an R/S up/down breakthrough. In actual sample GBPUSD trade dated January, 31, 2006 the support breakthrough has triggered a bullish in-session trend. Simple, isnt it Affirmative at a glance, but 95 of traders loosing their forex deposits are calling for natural questions: 1. Whats the reason, the world traders are getting entangled in so a seemingly simple regularity 2. Whats the way of correct detection of R/S levels for currencies to use to jet off from 3. What attributes are inherent to true/false breach differentiation It is, thus, to be concluded that a trader will never achieve steady FX gains unless the answer is found to the above three simple questions. CLASSICAL BOOKS ON RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS Forex scholars books, when analyzed, are giving grounds why 95 of traders turn deposit-killers. The point is that under different technical scholars: a). fairly different understanding is being attached to support and resistance b). no distinct criteria (except Demarks technique) is in service to finding a support and a resistance c). there is no clear-cut interfacing between R/S levels on different timeframes. Below is sort of understanding classification: 1. R/S are understood by SOME SCHOLARS to be horizontal lines drawn along price highs and lows support and resistance are horizontal (or almost horizontal) lines linking several minima Fig.2. Support and resistance Legend E. Nayman using resistance/support levels at trade station: 4. MOVING AVERAGES based resistance/support levels. a). E. NAYMAN: Bollinger Bands are sort of peculiar support/resistance lines 5. ROUND NUMBERS being support/resistance levels a). E. LEFEVRE (view: Memories of an Exchange Profiteer forum. masterforex-v. org/viewforumf9 ) underlined: Rates, having, for the first time, traveled 100, 200 or 300 points, are almost sure to cover additional 30 to 50 pips b). D. SCHWAGGER: One is to be especially cautious about dollar holdups. With USD781,25 best working on T-bonds and USD425 - on soybeans, temptation is raising to find optimum holdup for each market. It is advantageous to establish a round number to comfortably use it all of the markets. CLASSIFICATION OF WEAK AND STRONG R/S LEVELS AS VIEWED BY FOREX SCHOLARS J. MURPHY classifies support and resistance (view Technical Analysis of Futures Markets, New York Institute of Finance Prentice Hall, 1986) proceeding from: price in-domain residence period (1) volume of trade (2) and price domain age (3). 1. The longer the price reciprocation period within a certain support/resistance area, the more critical the area. By way of an example, if a certain stagnation area observed a 3-week price up/down movement with subsequent rally thereof, this support domain is more important than that having observed a 3-day price reciprocation. 2. Volume of trade is another means to evaluate importance of support/resistance. If, say, a support formation did involve a huge volume of trade, it means a huge number of contracts passing from hands to hands, hence the support levels is ranking high and visa versa: the less the volume of trade, the lower-ranking the support. 3. Still another support/resistance importance indicator is its age in relation to the present moment. Since we are dealing with traders reaction to market moves and to positions they have entered or have failed to enter, it is fairly clear, that the younger the event and the reaction thereto, the more important the event. Seven years later (in 1993), A. ELDER has confirmed 2 of 3 J. Murphys postulates dated back to 1986. His classification of resistance/support levels is guided by: - number of test tangencies it sustained (the greater the number - the stronger the level). Within a fortnight an immediate support/resistance is formed within 2 months the level grows accustomed to by traders, thus attaining medium power within 2 years actually a stereotype is built radiating strong support and resistance. - price scatter dominating a support/resistance level (the wider the range thereof - the stronger the level). A wide-range turning-point price consolidation is similar to a high fence surrounding valuable property. A congestion zone equal to 1 of current price (4 points with SampP500 at 400 level) yields insignificant support/resistance, whereas a 3 area is responsible for medium levels with a 7 area possessing sufficient power to be a strong trend killer. - The greater the volume of trade in a support/resistance area, the stronger the levels. Huge volume within a congestion zone is indicative of numerous emotional jobbers involvement. As opposite, minor volumes point out traders indifference towards the level being intersected, hence being attribute of the levels deteriorated health. Weak support/resistance levels are capable of bringing a trend to a halt, while strong ones may appear trend reversers. Traders buy support and sell resistance, thus turning their impact into a self-justifying projection. SCHOLARS VIEW ON SUPPORT/RESISTANCE SEATING POINTS 1. T. DEMARK recommends: - plotting resistance upon bid TD-points - plotting support upon ask TD-points. 2. D. SCHWAGER (view: Technical Analysis. Complete Course) insists on drawing resistance and support in the vicinity of prior lows and highs. Support and resistance are to be viewed as approximate areas rather, than exact levels. It is to be emphasized that any previous high is not at all a premonition of perspective prices dry up thereat or thereunder. Instead, it is indicative of a resistance to be expected near that level. By analogy, a previous low is not at all illustrative of further price declines halting thereat or thereabove. Instead, it is indicative of a support to be projected close to that level. Depicted below is a support zone governed by relative prior highs and lows concentration: gold, futures. Continued by D. Schwager: Some technical analysts use to treat previous highs and lows as being endowed with, sort of, holy significance. A previous high, being 1078, is deemed by them a strong resistance. In case the market displays a spike higher, say, as far as 1085, they reason the resistance to have been breached. Its not correct. Support and resistance are but to be looked upon as cloud-shaped areas rather than exact levels. 3. J. MURPHY resorts to plotting support and resistance in a local peak-wise fashion (i. e. by local highs and lows): A resistance level usually coincides with the previous peak level. 4. A. ELDER: Resistance and support are to be preferably plotted (see Fig. 13) through congestion zone margins (CZM) rather than through highs and lows. CZMs constitute traders mind-changing areas, whereas highs and lows are only reflective of panic among weakest jobbers. Continued by A. Elder: Beware of support/resistance false breaching, indicated as F in the above figure. Breaches are followed by amateurs, with professionals being opposite travel jobbers. Now, pay some attention to the charts right corner, where prices have bumped into strong resistance. Its high time to hunt for shorting with a stop-loss to be placed slightly above the resistance level. To be noted is a pronounced regularity, not referred to by A. Elder: the support/resistance levels drawn through previous local peaks are not extended by him after false breaching thereof. 4. D. SCHWAGER gives the following explanation when resorting to projection of 2 () inclined support and resistance levels: - Standard lines are usually drawn through price extrema (highs, lows), attributable to traders emotions, therefore these points may not reflect the markets real trend. - An inner trendline is to be plotted closest to the bulk of relative lows and relative highs, ignoring extreme points D. Schwager himself is the recognizer of the subjective nature inner trendline method, but in so doing he jumps to a very important conclusion that ordinary trendlines are: - far less helpful (), than inner trendlines. One of inner trendlines shortcomings is their inevitably random nature, even greater than that possessed by ordinary trendlines, being restricted by extreme highs and lows, at least. In practice, not infrequently, several options prove available as regards inner trendline plotting procedure (see Fig. 14). Nevertheless, my experience advises inner trendlines to be of greater avail than ordinary trendlines when spotting potential support/resistance areas. 1. Each forex scholar offers his own interpretation of support/resistance levels, meaning different entities thereby (inclined, horizontal, inclined-horizontal, MA-based, round numbers-based, etc.). 2. There exists no clear-cut technique to define points to plot support/resistance levels through (except that of Demarks). 3. In real time trading, that said, these levels discovery on forex charts automatically entails absolutely different conclusions. Legend: - ordinary trendline - inner trendline. TESTING AND PRACTICAL INCONSISTENCY OF CLASSICAL SUPPORT/RESISTANCE DETECTION METHODS Jeffry Owen Katz and Donna L. McCormick have disclosed results of their testing of the above scholars recommendation procedures in their Encyclopedia of Trading Strategies: TEST PROCEDURE 2 A channel breakthrough-operated system. Closing prices are utilized only next day market price entry at session opening commission and slippage being accounted for. The above test has been performed exactly the way the previous one, but with no account to slippage (3 ticks) and commission (USD15 per dealing cycle). Although the model displayed perfect operation with no account to dealing expenditures, it has turned out a complete fiasco in practice. Even the best-in-sample solution has proved loss-responsible only, and, as expected, the systems beyond-sampling poor operation came into being. Note: In compliance with E. Naymans theoretical outlook, a channel upward breach is alleged to be a STRONG (. ) trading signal at an uptrend. TEST PROCEDURE 6 It is a closing price breakthrough system with next day per stop-order entry. The model longs via a stop-order at the point of breaching a resistance appointed by recent highs and shorts via a stop-order at the point of breaching a resistance appointed by recent lows. As expected, the system exhibited much poorer operation with low profit and deteriorated statistics within sampling. The model proved killer to the per-deal average of USD798, with profit rating being 37. TEST PROCEDURE 7 The procedure involved volatility punch with next-day opening entry. The model longs upon next-day opening with provision that todays closing appears superior to the volatility upper edge. The model shorts in case of the price falling below the above edge. The optimization period embraced 240 dealings only with 45 being profit-bringing. TEST PROCEDURE 9 Involved is volatility punch triggering a per stop-order entry. The model effects a market stop-order entry immediately after passing a breach point. The sampling period incorporated 1465 dealings, each being of 6-day average duration. The system has ensured 40 profit with average gain of USD931 each. Under all parameter combinations only longs were winning. Both shorts and longs proved loosing outside sampling limits. Only 29 were winning out of the total of 610 dealings. Testing data, supplied by Jeffry Owen Katz and Donna L. McCormick, constitute convincing grounds that forex scholars trading systems involving support/resistance breakthrough (the way these are described by the scholar) are rather likely to result in loss than in profit. This is one of the reasons for 95 of traders to turn their forex deposits killers. Inasmuch as the support/resistance related theory is so mixed up and subjective, it is only to be guessed what sort of support/resistance reading-matter may be offered by modern forex brokers websites. Lets resort to sort of a brief investigation of support/resistance levels by way of May, 12, 2005 sample trading day analysis. - EUR/USD 1,2720 1,2475 1,29 1,3160 - GBP/USD 1,90 1,9150 1,8540 1,8130 Comments: the Alpari Analytical Department Director Roman Pavelko is hardly able to teach beginners, assuming the following: a). he has mixed up the EUR and the USD support and resistance b). being an intraday trader, he recommends going long on the GBPUSD at a 150-point distance from the current morning price, whereas it is common knowledge for any Masterforex Academy beginner, that after a 150-point travel any position on the GBPUSD should be squared at a local high, instead of waiting for a further 150-point intraday leap to 1,9150. c). have You ever heard about an intraday trader, indicating a 450-point difference between support and resistance in his pending session trading plan (GBPUSD 1,90 - 1,8540) d). these recommendations aftermaths are apparent: the GBP has punched 1 point to 1,9001 and swiveled down to 1,8871 the EUR reached 1,2958 and reversed to 1,2853. That said, do You think, someones going to fire R. Pavelko from the Alpari Chief Analyst position I rather doubt the fact. Hence, the question is: why should R. Pavelko be source of such sort of recommendations to naiumlve Alpari beginners and why is Alpari management happy about situation where traders turn losers after following these recommendations Brokers recommended support/resistance on the EUR/USD and GBPUSD as of June, 12, 2006 morning: - EUR/USD: support 1.2780, 1.2740, 1.2685/90 1.2600, resistance 1.2890, 1.2930/40, 1.3000. - GBP/USD support 1.8740, 1.8670, 1.8560, resistance 1.8890, 1.8940, 1.9000 EUR/USD support 1.2820 resistance 1.22940 (. ) GBP/USD support 1.8805 resistance 1.8950 The June, 12, 2006 information on technical levels of EUR/USD GBP/USD is missing with the support/resistance levels themselves being quoted in incidental unsystematic fashion. EURUSD: - support: 1.2840, 1.2800, 1.2770/50, 1.2720, 1.2670, 1.2630, 1.2600/1.2580, 1.2540, 1.2500, 1.2460, 1.2400/1.2390, 1.2350, 1.2300, 1.2250. - resistance: 1.2890/1.2900, 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3040, 1.3100, 1.3150, 1.3200/10. GBPUSD - support: 1.8840, 1.8800, 1.8740/30, 1.8700, 1.8670/60, 1.8630, 1.8590, 1.8535, 1.8500, 1.8450, 1.8400, 1.8360, 1.8300, 1.8270. - resistance: 1.8870/80, 1.8915/20, 1.8940/50, 1.8990/1.9000, 1.9060. RES 4: 1.2990 RES 3: 1.2965 RES 2: 1.2940 RES 1: 1.2915 CURRENT PRICE: 1.2890 SUP 1: 1.2830 SUP 2: 1.2795 SUP 3: 1.2755 SUP 4: 1.2685 RES 4: 1.9080 RES 3: 1.9000 RES 2: 1.8960 RES 1: 1.8915 CURRENT PRICE: 1.8895 SUP 1: 1.8815 SUP 2: 1.8725 SUP 3: 1.8725 SUP 4: 1.8515 Are You not getting mixed up Each broker presents his own support/resistance levels different from others. With the above diversity of levels being recommended any true/false breach of any technical level proves out of question. Should we attempt to simultaneously depict all the support/resistance levels furnished by various forex brokers, well ultimately find ourselves facing a picket fence thereof. The arrangement is reminiscent of J. Schwagers Technical Analysis. Complete course, raising a question: Is technical charting to be referred to as a prediction engine or as folk arts Probably, the best way out here is: 1. In view of huge number of forex scholars opinions, let everyone answer this question independently with the purpose of finding out the way to faultlessly pinpoint support/resistance levels. 2. Let everyone decide whether he is going to believe the support/resistance levels, released daily by various Brokers and Dealers, provided that: a). one has no idea of the definition principles thereof b). the above levels being offered at websites by non-traders or by ex-losers. Otherwise the natural result will remain equal to 95 of losers worldwide. SUPPORT/RESISTANCE LEVELS CONSTRUCTION UNDER MASTERFOREX-V TRADING CONCEPT 1. Support and resistance levels are to be split into those of flat and trend: a). support/resistance levels are horizontal when in flat b). support/resistance levels are inclined when in trend. 2. Various kinds of support/resistance are intrinsic to various trend types (if You are considering 4 trend types, You will face 4 R/S grids if 5 trend types are being dealt with, there will emerge 5 R/S grids respectively). 3. A larger trend is of greater significance in respect to a minor one, whereas minor trend support/resistance levels are of more accurate nature than those of larger one. This issue has not at all been touched upon either by forex technical scholars, or by modern analysts. 4. All the 4 trend-type support/resistance detection procedure is elaborated in the fashion enabling the Masterforex-V Academy hundreds traders to daily set up support/resistance levels with 1-2 points deviation, due to forex quotes difference from various Brokers. This aspect has not been considered by forex technical scholars either. 5. It appeared indispensable to simultaneously analyze the minimum of 2 ally currencies support/resistance levels (say, GBPUSD, EURUSD, etc.) since there is the formula: True R/S level breach by the forex pair 1 False R/S level breach by the forex pair 2 EITHER False R/S level breach by the forex pair 1 OR True R/S level breach by the forex pair 2 This aspect has not been considered by forex technical scholars either. 6. Minor timeframes intermediate R/S levels (for the sake corrective depth calculation) ARE DIFFERENT from those being manifested under forex trendwise travel. This aspect has not been subject to investigation by forex technical scholars either. 7. The available technical analysis scholar literature on support/resistance levels contains plentitude of helpful and. data. The objective is to effect independent synthesis of T. Demarks, A. Elders, E. Naymans, J. Murphys, D. Schwagers et al techniques with the above Masterforex-V principles in order to attain proper understanding of the way prior binary regularities tailor further movement perspectives. 8. A combination of 4 trends and more is helpful in 1-4 point-accurate detecting forex trading session local extrema. With the above said, it proves strange to hear the statement of Ch. Lebau and D. Lucas (see: Computer-aided analysis of Futures Markets (forum. masterforex-v. org/viewforumf9 ), reading: We do not believe in exact price prediction popular practice. - Whats the way the Masterforex-V Academy students manage to profit now and then - Are they being no-readers of forex analysts numerous websites - Do they independently establish support/resistance levels on multiple timeframes of numerous - Do they check their established levels against a primary source (wherefrom the Brokers analysts use to crib a support/resistance) - Do they understand principles of true/false breaching of each level and of a bounce therefrom - Are they capable of calculating in-session currencies travel margins to a destination, whereafter the above currencies bounce off and exhibit corrective reversal THE QUERY MAY GO ON: Masterforex-V Trading Academy in English - www. masterforex-v. su BOOK II Chapter I THE MFV TRADING CONCEPT TREND DEFINITION To ensure steady profits at FX a trader is supposed to pinpoint faultless entries and exits. Its common knowledge, that a trend is the principal and the most compromising relevant area. Hence, trend detection is the traders PRIMARY target. If The Trend Is Your Friend, entries should be executed trendwise and the profit should be allowed to flow, etc. there emerge questions to touch every live FX trader: - what are the trends criteria (bullish or bearish) - once known, it is a traders conventional job to enter trendwise and let the profit flow - if the FX major rule quintessence is as simple as that, why 90-99 of traders suffer losses with enviable permanence Book I Chapter XI Where trends are to be chased at FX or the traders faultless profit segments, www. masterforex-v./001011.htm analyses the FX scholars and modern forum-speaker traders overwhelming chaos in the field, ranging: - from the Charles Dow classical definition that a trend constitutes a vectored price travel, where each consecutive high is higher/lower than the foregoing one with each consecutive low being higher/lower than the foregoing one (my opinion: the definition is obsolete and does not fit new FX realities) - to some traders purely absurd opinions on no trends at modern markets along with Eric Naymans thinking of his trend varieties built upon no distinct criteria (There are none of any strict rules, once forever established, - E. Nayman stipulates). One of the factors responsible for traders en-mass deposit losses is fairly understandable from the above. If theres no distinct definition of trend - then the question is: should entries be effected bullish or bearish trendwise and where should the profit be allowed to flow MFV TREND DEFINITION From MFV standpoint a trend is a vectored price travel between two opposite reversal patterns. In-trend movement is of zigzag nature, i. e. there is a recovery wave following each pulse wave. The pulse/recovery ratio is indicative of the trend direction. Thus: - under a bullish trend, the uprising pulse length exceeds the corrective bearish wave one - under a bearish trend, the bearish pulse length exceeds the corrective uprising wave one - under a sideways flat, the pulse and recovery durations are equal. Figure 1 legend: - flat upper boundary - flat lower boundary Figure 1. Trend and recovery Headnshoulders is a USDCAD reversal pattern with a bearish trend startup, where a downward pulse is longer than an upward corrective action. Respectively, a USDCAD W1 bearish trend is alive till there is a reversal pattern. As obvious from USDCAD W1 chart, there was no upward reversal pattern in 2003-2006. Hence the W1 bearish trend continues. Later on in Book II TA in MFV trading concept I will stage a detailed description of each component, attributable to the trend change, but for the time being only the critical ones will be referred to. 1. Atrend continues till theres a swivel, thus increasing the importance of reversal patterns, discussed hereinafter. Reversal patterns are found at any trends origination and termination. Thereby a trend constitutes the distance from one reversal pattern to another, being opposite: - the start of a bullish trend is a reversal pattern of the preceding bearish or sideways trend - the bullish trend continuation is a trend continuation pattern (see Book II Trend continuation patterns www. masterforex-v. su/book2.htm )being a retracement variety calling for a trendwise entry. - the bullish trend termination being a bullish trend reversal pattern. Here are the examples: 2. There is an arbitrary fall of classical bullish and bearish trend reversal patterns into: a). reversal patterns resulting from a non-breakthrough of a next in turn resistance or support on a bullish or a bearish trend respectively: with reference to drawings of classical trend reversal patterns from the following books by FX scholars: John J. Murphy Futures markets TA: theory and practice D. Schwagger TA, comprehensive course A. Elder How to gamble and win at the exchange A. Elder Basics of exchange trading Larry Williams Long-term secrets of short-term trading K. Lukas Using TA at the world FX market A. Nayman Minor traders encyclopedia A. Nayman Master trading. Secret materials A quadrangle with the pulse and corrective waves equal to each other Below are several sample trend continuation models within a single trend. Of interest is the bullish wave transfiguration into a pulse and the bearish wave one - into a corrective action, thus governing a bullish trend continuation. - a pennant. CRITICISM OF CHARLES DOWS CLASSICAL TREND DEFINITION In last century thirties Charles Dow has proposed a trend definition up to now wandering from manual to manual and injuring traders in an irremediable manner. Please, once again go through Charles Dows definition: a trend constitutes a vectored price travel, where each consecutive high is higher/lower than the foregoing one with each consecutive low being higher/lower than the foregoing one. Is it clear why his definition fails to properly account for modern trend realities According to Charles Dow, the trend core criterium is restricted to the fact that each consecutive high is higher/lower than the foregoing one with each consecutive low being higher/lower than the foregoing one. It leads to erroneous logics of stops allocation (safety cushions per Bill Williams) offered in practically all FX manuals: one to several points lower the previous low at uptrend or the previous high at downtrend. Various timeframe figures below are illustrative of how this classical trick is used by the FX Game Organizer to blow off traders stops, positioned in strict accordance with Dows trend rules, included into the worlds FX manuals. What type of trend is here, proceeding from Charles Dows provisions Please, take pain to calculate how many highs are higher than the previous ones and how many lows are lower than the previous ones. And above all How many traders stops have been shot down here GENERAL TREND DEFINITION OUTLINE AS SEEN BY MFV TRADING CONCEPT. 1. Atrend is a vectored price travel between two opposite reversal patterns. 2. In-trend movement is of zigzag nature, i. e. there is a recovery wave following each pulse wave. The pulse/recovery ratio is indicative of the trend direction. 3. Classical patterns are incorporated within a recovery (pullback) model, followed by a new trend wave. And now, assuming these paras 1-3, we will analyze the above figure 18. By all classical canons the previous low of 1.9647 is to be followed by: - the preceding trend denial according to Charles Dows uptrend tops and bottoms being higher than the previous ones - stop-loss orders placement. Instead of stop-loss orders I resort to locking (see Book I www. masterforex-v. org/001018.htm ) I am always putting a series of questions to staunch supporters of stops being placed in conformity with FX canons: - Are You sure that the trend wont reverse at that point - If negative, why should You be placing a stop - But if You are certain, why dont You effect a concurrent opposite entry - What is Your piece of mind on how many traders in the world have placed stops along with You - Are You sure that the FX Game Organizer will not be tempted to knock down all the world traders stops by way of a single gesture and to continue urging the previous trend further on The above sample chart of dated 01.12.2006 furnishes strong evidence of: - WHAT FOR the world traders are trained to place stop-loss orders at the same point - WHAT FOR obsolete theories of Charles Dow and other FX scholars are published in millions of copies, being sufficient for ALL the traders throughout the world - WHY the 97-99 traders loss statistics is identical through all the countries. So, whats to be done to avoid plopping down into losers swamp AT LEAST, You are to try to get the understanding of WHERE and WHY traders loose their deposits whereas, AT MOST, You are to attempt to elaborate Your own entry and exit algorithm. To this end You are to give scrutiny to the chapters on reversal patterns and trend continuation, incorporating a detailed investigation of: - shadow details of each trend retracement (recovery) - see the chapter on trend continuation patterns - shadow details of each trend swivel - see the chapter on trend reversal patterns - inaccuracies, innuendos and direct errors committed by FX scholars on the issue. Putting it otherwise, You will have to find problems solution, many of the scholars (John J. Murphy, D. Schwagger, B. Williams, A. Elder, K. Lucas, A. Nayman, etc.) have failed to find. AND BY WAY OF A PROMPT FROM MFV: A headnshoulders reversal pattern should take shape to ensure trend reversal. Legend: option Options A and B are indicative of the points where the headnshoulders reversal pattern could be feasible. Masterforex-V Trading Academy in English - www. masterforex-v. su